AI and forecasts

Last updated 2026-09-25

AI previews and recaps

Match previews and recaps are written by an AI model (Anthropic's Claude) and are labelled "AI-generated" wherever they appear. The model is given only structured match data from our database: recent results, head-to-head history, our forecast and, for recaps, the final score. It is instructed not to add anything that isn't in that data, such as injuries, quotes or player news. Every piece is checked automatically before it is shown, and anything that mentions betting is discarded.

Pro members also get longer "deep dive" analyses before games involving the teams they follow, written by a larger Claude model from the same kind of data plus our model's own breakdown of the forecast. The same rules and checks apply.

AI writing can still get things wrong. If you spot a mistake, please tell us.

Win probabilities

Forecasts come from an Elo rating model. Every team has a rating that goes up when it wins and down when it loses, adjusted for home advantage, the margin of victory, and how strong the opponent was. Ratings drift back toward the average between seasons. For football the model also estimates the chance of a draw.

A forecast is first published about two days before a game and can update until kick-off as other results come in. At kick-off it is locked: it can no longer change, and we record a fingerprint (a SHA-256 hash) of it. After the game we score every locked forecast with the Brier score and log loss, standard measures of forecast accuracy. The results, a calibration chart and a daily fingerprint of every locked forecast are public on our track record page.

For the big European football leagues we also fit a goals model (Dixon-Coles), which estimates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent scores, giving more weight to recent games. It replaces Elo for a league only if it forecast that league's previous season more accurately in a backtest. Cup and international games always use Elo.

Not betting advice

Forecasts describe uncertainty; they are not predictions of what will certainly happen. They are for information and entertainment only, and nothing on StatLocus is betting advice or encourages gambling. If gambling is causing you problems, free confidential help is available, for example from GamCare (UK) or 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Questions? Email support@enterhlytics.ca.